A step into the unknown

The energy markets are now in unchartered territory. Never before have there been as many fundamental changes and challenges at the same time. The main concern that requires immediate action is the growth of CO² emissions. Scientists and engineers must develop completely new, visionary technologies and not just fine-tune existing solutions.

In order to be successful in these turbulent times, we must think about what the future might look like.

Having taken the first steps with scenario work – figuring out alternative futures in specific regions and of limited scope, Wärtsilä concluded that the scenarios were very useful and that it was possible to be far more ambitious with them.

Gathering expertise from various spheres

During 2008,Wärtsilä’s international and cross-functional team spent over 8,000 hours analysing the question of electricity production and use in 2023, to understand our clients’ future needs in greater detail. In order to have as broad a perspective as possible, the team turned to various experts to discuss issues like macroeconomics, geopolitics and the environment.

Wärtsilä’s team found the discussions with academics, NGOs, business leaders, government representatives and other experts so fascinating that we wanted to share the results with you. We hope that our scenarios will be a useful contribution to the worldwide debate on power sector issues.

The framework

To make sense of the complex contextual issues, we created the structure above consisting of 8 layers. The layers are essentially topics broadly influencing electricity production and use from climate change and geopolitics to public opinion and technological development.

After researching these thoroughly and discussing them with experts, we defined which developments and influences we could be certain of – and which not. In the end, we were sure of only two things: that oil production is peaking and the share of renewables will increase.

Analysing key uncertainties, we found three rather different scenarios, revolving around the issue of power – not only in terms of energy, but also influence: who has it and why? And what are its impacts? You can read more about our findings on the following pages.